Using Reverse Line Movement To Win

Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.

The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.

prosportsonline.net

. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.

So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.

To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.

College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

By: Manny G

The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.

Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.

NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.

http://prosportsonline.net

So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.

Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.

So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units


Great Britain’s Indigenous Horse Breeds – The Thoroughbred

He will often need supplementary feeding and rugging through cold weather. Eclipse was another to have Darley Arabian blood. In 2003, Maryland also appointed the Thoroughbred its State Horse.

The oriental influence is seen, not only in the refinement and speed of the breed, but also in the fine coat which thickens and lengthens only slightly in the winter. Others are laid back and lovable. Animals with suspect conformation are more likely to ‘break down’ if their action is faulty or their legs insubstantial.

The thoroughbred has been used to ‘improve’ many breeds.Breeds such as the Hanoverian, Trakenher, Holsteiner and Irish Draught  have at least some Thoroughbred blood, thus providing speed, courage and beauty. However the thoroughbred is also a distinct breed in its own right. Most warmblood breeds such as the Swiss and Dutch Warmbloods have a large percentage of Thoroughbred blood.

The head is straight, lean and elegant with large eyes and finely chiseled ears. Eclipse was never beaten in a race and 90% of all registered thirst really great race-horse. One of his most illustrious sons was Herod, who became an important name in the pedigrees of many of the early thoroughbreds.

Young thoroughbreds are raced at an early age before their bones have fully developed and leg problems and injuries often arise. Although they were once bred not for their looks but purely and simply for their speed, good conformation has an impact on speed and hardiness. Those that are too small for the race-track find a home on the polo field providing their temperament is not too fiery.. One of his get was Flying Childers, arguably the first really great race-horse. They are typically more highly strung and temperamental than most other breeds.

The ribcage is deep and rounded and the chest wide with plenty of room for heart and lungs. Thoroughbreds are most often associated with the horse-racing industry although they are also used in many other equestrian disciplines.

The breed had its origins in England back in the early 1700s and selective breeding is still going on, resulting in faster and faster times on the race-track.

The main period of expansion was probably when the 1800s when the thoroughbred found its way to Australia, Europe, Japan and South America. Initially horse-racing was the pastime of the aristocracy and gentry but its popularity, and the lure of gambling, has seen racing and breeding of the thoroughbred spread to every corner of the globe.

The overall impression is one of elegance, toughness and quality. Thoroughbreds need more protection from the elements than ‘native’ or cross breeds and they usually require supplementary feeding year round.

Thoroughbreds generally need more sensitive, skilled handling. Some thoroughbreds are produced purely for disciplines other than racing while some find their way to show-jumping or eventing careers when their racing careers are over. Three of these are recognized as being the foundation sires of the thoroughbred world. In the extremes of horse disciplines such as eventing, hunting and show-jumping, professional riders look for at least some thoroughbred blood to provide courage and speed. Matchem was also noted for his impeccable temperament, a vast improvement on the highly strung, nervous individuals of the day.

There are now a number of rescue organizations that take in ex-racehorses and try to find good homes for them. Some are only suitable as companion animals.

Between 1660 and 1750, around 200 horses were imported into England from the Orient. There are strict criteria to be met and often an adoption fee is required.

Other oriental horses, especially Arabs, figured in the early development. The three are the Byerley Turk, the Darley Arabian and the Godolphin Arabian. It seems generally agreed that, of these three, only the Darley Arabian was a true Arab, The Byerley was almost certainly a Turkmene type and the Godolphin a Barb.

The Darley Arabian is considered the most important of the three. To excel at another discipline, he needs re-training and re-educating so although they may be quite cheap to acquire, an ex-racehorse is not the best mount for an inexperienced rider.

The Godolphin Arabian was foaled in Yemen before going to Syrian then Tunis. Eclipse was another to have Darley Arabian blooc. If someone says of his dog ‘It’s a thoroughbred’ he is saying that it is a purebred saluki or whippet or whatever. InKentucky, the Thoroughbred was designated the ‘Official State Horse’ in 1996. He was purchased by Thomas Darley in Aleppo, Syria in 1704, shipped to Yorkshire, England and bred to selected racing mares. The hooves are tough. The racing industry is huge in America. When crossed with native British horses and ponies, the progeny were larger with a longer stride, more scope and more speed.

Thoroughbreds average around 16 hands. These adoption agencies endeavour to match a horse with a new owner. The thoroughbred has a streamlined body with long, slender legs and strong, muscular hindquarters. In the horse world, it is also used by people to describe a purebred of a breed. Some strains are particularly nervy and highly strung but have been kept on because of their speed. The shoulder is big and muscular and the withers tend to be high.

Once past racing, a thoroughbred can face an uncertain future. There are now literally millions of thoroughbreds and they are spread all over the globe.

The Byerley Turk gets his name from Captain Robert Byerley who captured the stallion from the Turks. They are highly intelligent, quick and eager to please. The stallion was shipped to England and bred to native mares. He has been trained to gallop at top speed virtually every time he is saddled and to pass all others if he can. The 2nd Earl of Godophin acquired the stallion. Eclipse was never beaten in a race and 90% of all registered thoroughbreds trace back to him.

The most rapid development in improvement of performance took place during the 19th century and the early part of the 20th century. Some thoroughbreds have suspect feet with poor horn, low heels and flat soles.

The thoroughbred has a quality and athleticism that has become the benchmark for a perfect equine.

The Thoroughbred

The term ‘Thoroughbred’ has several different meanings. It was gifted to the French king and later was taken to England. There is good length from the hip to the stifle. One of his progeny was Matchem, a race-horse par excellence. The nostrils are open and capable of flaring allowing maximum airflow when racing at speed.

Today, all thoroughbreds in the General Stud Book, which was established in 1791, trace back to these three foundation sires.

Thoroughbreds were imported into the United States from the 1730s


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SportsBooks Blog | SportsBooks

]. York station.

Oct 14 2012

I wonder how many new-born Bradleys there will be in the coming months? [ … ]

We launched Going Barmy in London last week which was the first time I’d met the author, Paul Winslow [ … ]

Aug 10 2012

Jul 23 2012

Aug 9 2013

York. To Leeds. From York [ … [ … ]

He was running in lane 1 on a cinder track which the day before had been chewed up by the men in the 10,000m final


Horse Racing Betting, The Risk Free Way

There are calculators and software to help you and take most of the work out of doing it.

Horse Racing Betting, The Risk Free Way

 by: Rob Mellor

The idea is that you place the right amount of money at the right prices so that no matter what horse wins the race, you make a profit.

You may or may not of heard of all this talk about been a change to horse racing betting where you can bet on horse races risk free.

Rob Mellor is making a living using his horse racing betting system and you can join him going to his site www.risk-free-betting-secret.com to learn more about risk free betting.

I hear you saying how can I make money betting on every horse in the race?

Because of the competition between bookmakers and now the rise of Betfair there prices are all over the place. If every bookie does this you can make a profit very easy.

. << Back to “Recreation And Sports” Index

Now this isn’t some bogus system that gives you one horse that is guaranteed to win, it isn’t even like normal gambling. It’s more like trading as you are betting on more than one horse in a race even all of them.

Yes that’s right, Risk Free!

This article was posted on August 23, 2005

Sounds hard doesn’t it?

You can learn more about this amazing horse racing system now and start profiting for yourself.

I know it sounds a bit complicated but there is a new horse racing system that makes it easy and dead simple to use. They do this by making a couple of horses in a race better priced and then advertising it. One horse can be 4/1 with one bookmaker and 7/1 with another.

About The Author

Now some people in the know have been doing this for years even before all of the online bookmakers but with the internet exploding risk free betting has been made available to you and others.

Every bookmaker is trying to get customers by giving away free bets, the best prices etc


Biggest Gambling Countries In The World

Furthermore, the slot machines named pokies are the most favorite game in Australia with an estimated number of 75-80 percent of problem gamblers. Otherwise, Australia is the only country that allows online bets on sports but prevents gamblers from using the Internet to place bets during live games.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $568

Singapore offered the very first casino some years ago which then became the world’s third largest-gaming center after Macau and Las Vegas.

Top Online Gambling Mistakes

Gambling’s Famous Icons

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,288

Las Vegas is well-known as the gambling industry of the world; however, American people are not the biggest gamblers on Earth. Most profits go to education, arts and culture.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $553

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $517

Related links:

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,174

Singapore

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $568

Italy

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,174

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $553

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $1,288

Finland

The most favorite gambling activity in Italy is electronic gaming machine. Reportedly, over 75 percent of adult Canadians took part in the games last year in which the most popular games are lotteries and Scratch and Win cards.

Interestingly enough, the country’s national lottery company, Veikkaus, belongs to the government and is operated by the ministry of education. According to business advisory firm MAG Consulenti Associati, the electronic gaming makes up half of Italy’s total gaming revenues in first half of 2011.

Canada

Australia

Australia is the craziest country when it comes to gaming and gambling. H2 Gambling Capital has released the list of biggest gambling countries due to average gaming losses.

Australia: Biggest Gambling Country in the World

Era of Online Gambling

The potash-rich province of Saskatchewan is home to the biggest gamblers in Canada. Although the government has imposed an entry fee of S$100 ($80.50) for citizens entering the casino, the country’s gaming revenue is expected to hit $6.4 billion in 2011 and outpace Las Vegas.

Gaming Losses Per Adult: $517. In this country, gaming companies bet people on whether the central bank’s interest will increase or not


Casino-Gaming :: Sports Betting Using Offshore Sportsbooks

Offshore betting

is proving to be a safe, secure, customer-friendly, billion-dollar industry, complete with

sportsbooks and online casinos. The offshore sportsbooks make the wagering experience

more convenient and pleasurable because of the instant access along with a much larger

betting menu and high wagering limits. You will find that offshore betting is an easy alternative

for Americans that like to wager but do not necessarily have the resources to travel to Nevada

every weekend. Still, the customer is still king, and successful offshore

betting sites recognize this. After you have found the book that suits your betting needs, you are going to need to sign up

for an account.

Betting offshore from home also allows the sports bettor to shop around for the best lines,

which encourages bettors to have accounts at different sportsbooks. I personally bet at

only 2 sportsbooks daily since I find the odds given are very competitive. The offshore sportsbooks make

the wagering experience more convenient and pleasurable because of the instant access

along with a much larger betting menu and high wagering limits. The positives of offshore betting are hard to

ignore, whether via Internet or telephone. In addition, the fact that you

can wager, 24/7, from anywhere in the world online or over the phone gives the offshore

sportsbooks a big advantage over the walk in environment. After you have registered for an account, you are going to need to deposit

funds into the offshore betting account. Bet offshore and make

a wider variety of picks at anytime of day from the comforts of your La-Z-Boy. And offshore sportsbooks offer the sports

bettor a complete playing and entertainment experience.

If you don’t know which sportsbooks are quality, well run businesses, visit a few gambling

websites. I do know that on my website, I offer a sportsbooks section which lists some of the

superior offshore sports betting books that I personally bet at daily.

Leave it to good old-fashioned competition to improve the betting industry. However, make sure that the offshore sportsbook does accept US players. Betting offshore from home also allows the bettor to shop

around for the best lines, which encourages bettors to have accounts at different sportsbooks.

Bonuses as well as seasonal promotions and a variety of wager limits are all advantages

to playing with an offshore sportsbook rather than a land-based sportsbook. If you don’t know which books are quality,

well run businesses, locate a gambling website which lists some of the superior offshore

sports betting books. With more

offshore betting sites being established, customers are winning with nice bonuses and freebies

as companies duke it out to win new business. In addition, make

sure that it is a quality sportsbook that is secure..

Nothing beats the thrill of betting in a Las Vegas sportsbook, but offshore betting is an easy

alternative for many Americans that like to wager but don’t necessarily have the resources to

travel to Nevada every weekend. I suggest that the offshore betting online portal only promotes 3 or 4 of

the best and most secure offshore sportsbooks that accept US players. Remember,

the point of gambling on sports is to have fun. In addition, the 2

sportsbooks that I use offer fast payouts and have great customer service. With more

offshore betting sites being established, customers are winning with nice bonuses and

freebies as companies duke it out to win new business. Fortunately there is a lot of easy information to be found on just about

every sportsbook on the Internet.

Most of the offshore betting parlors offer 1 free payout a month. In addition, I recommend to record all your offshore

betting transactions in a log to track performance, betting trends, and any information you may

need to look back on someday.

Every year, more and more serious bettors flock to Internet sportsbooks like 5Dimes Sportsbook,

BetUS, and BookMaker Sportsbook. Instead of piling the

kids into the minivan for a road trip to Las Vegas, consider the offshore sportsbooks for

convenient, hassle-free betting from the comfort of your home computer


Odds Dutching At The Races

As a result, the profit on that $15 wager ($7 + $8) is $13 or roughly 86% of your initial investment. Early daily double means placing wagers on races 1 and 2. This certainly affects the odds by making the rest of the betting field profitable. Likewise, late daily double means placing wagers on the last two races of the day. You can simply check off the horses you want to include in your Dutch “set,” specify the amount of your wager and set a minimum amount as your return of investment or ROI. In order to win, your must pick the winning horse in each of these races. There are four different kinds of Dutch betting you can do at the PTC website, namely: win, daily double, exacta and quinella. The Dutching bet offers the bettor a higher potential Win Frequency or WF. This method, however, is very popular among bettors who are interested in making money consistently and over the long haul; rather than just one win at one race at one event. For example, you are playing Entry # 1 at 5-2 and Entry # 2 at 3-1, a Dutching chart can show you that the $2 return is $7.00 and on # 2 is $8.00. The Dutching process calculates the correct winning bet on each selection so that the return is the same if any of the bets wins.

Jimmy Mayon (MBA, BSEE) is a technologist with an enthusiasm for Horse Racing. Rolling daily double means having your pick of runners from any of two consecutive races. During the last 25 years he has been managing banking and online transaction processing technologies for private and public sectors.

This kind of wagering strategy can pay enough dividends when bettors successfully reduce potential winners of an event to a select few; or when information about the runners not expected to perform well does not reach the other bettors. Exactas and quinella work with almost the same principle: you have to pick the first two finishing horses. You can also have combination bets in any daily double wager. Dutching calculators that perform the intricate math behind this system are often available for free from different website in the Internet; one of which can be found at http://www.premierturfclub.com. Dutch wins have, as a rule, lower profit margins on a race to race basis. A true Dutching wager would have to be an $8 bet on Entry # 1 and a $7 bet on Entry # 2; the return in both cases is $28. The software or the recently upgraded odds Dutch calculator will do the rest for you.

The term Odds Dutching or simply Dutching was coined after a fervent horse race enthusiast named Arthur Flegenheimer who also went, for some unknown reason, with the equally puzzling moniker of Dutch Schultz. Basically, Dutching is a form of wage placing that stretches the risk of losing, by betting on more than one “runner” or horse in a race or event. Today he specializes in open source development using Java, PHP, Linux, and MySQL..

Daily double entails picking the winning runner in two consecutive races. In quinella, both runners can be interchangeable.

http://www.kanati.com.ph/premieraffiliate.html

http://www.kanati.com.ph

Author’s Bio: 

As of September this year, Premier Turf Club or PTC has upgraded its real-time odds Dutching system, making it easier to place wagers on your favorite runners. Their difference lies therein: in exacta, you must specify which runner should finish first and which runner should finish second


How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

Why the Line Changes

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Contributed by:

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish? . The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created.

RJ Bell

©Pregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision.

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks.

How the Opening Line Is Made

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. “You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor)


Best bets for college football weekend

Doubt me? Ask Northwestern.

I tweeted about the opening line early Sunday morning, Louisville -7.5, and by the time I landed back in Nashville, Tenn., the line had moved all the way to Louisville -13.5.

5.

The game of the year. ET, ESPN

We had a little bit of a bounce-back performance last week with the picks, tallying a 4-2 record — including nailing all three big games. . This is one of several 7 p.m. First, Outkick told you that Louisville’s schedule is so weak that 26 different teams would be favored in every game. The Longhorns won’t play that poorly again, but Ole Miss is much better offensively than BYU is. games to be keeping tabs on.

War Eagle.

I believe that Louisville’s dominance is a bit of a myth.

If the rape trial and investigation weren’t hanging over Vandy’s football team, this would be my upset pick of the week. Second, look at Louisville’s 2012 schedule. That puts us at 8-6 through the first two weeks of the season. PT, and I’ll last through all these games. I’m predicting a deep Freeze for Texas.

Louisville -14 at Kentucky

Alabama -7.5 at Texas A&M

4. Can Butch Jones keep it respectable, or is Oregon intent on sending a message that they can run up the score on SEC teams, too?

But at -28?

In Gus Malzahn I trust.

OK, here’s my viewer guide:

3. ET, CBS

I would have taken Oregon at -20, where this line opened.

I told you, I think this game will be closer than expected. ET, ABC

Nebraska will either win by three or lose by 30. But can he avoid complete disaster? I think so.

Hugh Freeze had to be delirious with joy when he watched that Texas defense against BYU. They also lost to really bad/mediocre Syracuse and UConn teams.

Mississippi State at Auburn -6

We really don’t know much about either of these teams. In the game of the year, A&M’s the bet.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina -13.5

6. Ohio State at California, 7 p.m. to 12 p.m. (The Vols were 30-point underdogs at Florida in the first year of the Lane Kiffin era).

This will be the win that makes Hugh Freeze a household name among college football fans.

1. But the Cardinals beat only two teams by more than 10 points last year. Wisconsin at Arizona State, 10:30 p.m. ET, FOX

Ninety-five percent of all the money is on Louisville, and we’ve finally settled at two touchdowns.

Tennessee at Oregon -28

The game that Tennessee fans will be watching while peeking through their fingers. The Commodores’ defense struggled with Ole Miss’s offense, but South Carolina doesn’t do anything fancy.

Because Vegas believes that the Louisville story is a bit of a myth. Even with Mo Couch suspended on the defensive line, Tennessee has some decent weapons up front defensively. This is a massive game for Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen. Vandy at South Carolina, 7 p.m. I tend to think Ole Miss and Vandy are both good teams, and I think we’ll find that out this weekend.

9. UCLA at Nebraska, noon ET, ABC

Can y’all finish strong? Come on, I’m up at 4:30 a.m. The defensive team speed is bad — and will doubtless be exposed — but Tennessee has one of the top offensive lines in the country. Alabama at Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn can start off his Auburn coaching career 3-0. Not great, but not that bad either.

That’s why I think the Vols cover even though Oregon wins by double digits.

It’s worth keeping an eye on this one. Auburn isn’t a good football team yet, but I think by the time November rolls around they will be good.

Ole Miss at Texas -3

You guys can start talking Twitter trash to me early if Louisville immediately jumps out to a three-touchdown lead.

Why is this line hanging here?

This is the second-best game of the day, and most of us will struggle to find it on television.

Let’s roll, you degenerates.

It’s hard to know which game will be the best.

. Can you guys finish the night off with me? This is a huge game for both teams and both conferences here.

I don’t think Cal will pull off the upset, but should the Buckeyes be a little bit nervous about this trip? I think so.

Tennessee’s not great, but the Vols aren’t awful either. Nothing more needs to be said.

I can’t wait to see what’s going to happen here. ET, Longhorn Network

So, drum roll . ET, ESPN2

I think Ole Miss wins this game outright, and I thought this even before Texas went out and looked awful against BYU.

10. Start off with us on “FOX College Saturday” from 10 a.m. Louisville at Kentucky, noon ET, ESPN

This is the second-largest line in the history of Tennessee football. I’m taking Kentucky plus two touchdowns.

And if I’m wrong on this, you guys can call me a complete and total idiot. (Which happens every day anyway on Twitter, but still, I’ll deserve it for not picking Louisville to destroy a bad Kentucky team.)

I expect South Carolina to win this game, but I think Vandy will keep it close.

7. Oregon will stack the line and dare Justin Worley to make plays. ET, ESPN

2. Toss in injuries for Texas on offense, and I really think Ole Miss could not just win this game but own it.

You all have FS1. This is way too many points for the Commodores to be giving up to South Carolina. Remember, Vandy almost pulled off the upset in last year’s season opener. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Johnny Manziel makes a play or two to swing this in the other direction. Getting A&M plus a touchdown is just too good to pass up here. It’s 1620 on Comcast. Yes, they put a whipping on Florida, which really launched Louisville as a “top 10 team” story. Can he make many? I doubt it. Mississippi State at Auburn, 7 p.m. (Granted, one of those teams was Kentucky). Ole Miss at Texas, 8 p.m. Both are equally likely.

I think Alabama will win this game something like 31-27. Tennessee at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. You might as well get used to typing in our station.

So without further ado, let’s see if I can make you guys some money again this week.

That’s just too many points, I think.

This week I’m going with the five biggest SEC games and then, to me, the second-best game of the weekend, which is Ole Miss at Texas.

Even if most of y’all will be unable to watch this game on the Longhorn Network.

I’m going to admit something to y’all: This game terrifies me.

I’ve also included my viewer guide so that you can follow along with me all day long watching games.

Mississippi State is not a good football team. ET.

Nearly two touchdowns is too many points here.

8.